On updating climate extremes related engineering design values in a warming climate

The recurring devastation caused by climate extremes highlights the need for reliable estimates of their intensity and frequency. In this talk, we describe our attempts to address two recent challenges related to updating engineering design values in a warming climate. The first challenge deals with probable maximum precipitation (PMP), a parameter often used for dam safety and civil engineering; we aim to conceive an appropriate way to use regional climate models (RCMs) allowing a more physically based estimation of the PMP in a warming climate. The second is related to the uniform risk engineering practices that are increasingly being adopted for structural design. In such a case, estimates of extreme precipitation or wind loads with very low annual probabilities of exceedance, corresponding to return periods of up to 2000-years are required. We will sketch how such design practices, that aim to meet mandated structural reliability criteria, take into account the sampling uncertainty of long period estimates, and discuss how reliability could be compromised if estimates are also biased. Finally, I will express my genuine appreciation for the need to address climate change from a holistic and interdisciplinary perspective through a distinct formulation of the problem.

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