Implications of future development pathways for the risks of climate change

The risks of climate change will be due not just to the hazards associated with changes in weather and climate, but also the extent to which natural and human systems are exposed to these hazards, the sensitivity of exposed systems, and the ability of natural and human systems to prevent, prepare for, and cope with impacts that arise. Exposure, sensitivity, and capacity will change over time, depending on individual and collective choices, how these choices interact, and their short- and longer-term consequences. Therefore, considering development pathways is an important context when projecting the risks of climate change. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways describe five visions of future development, ranging from a world aiming to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals to a world separated into regional blocks characterized by extreme poverty and pockets of moderate wealth. Each world will have consequences for the burden of climate-sensitive risks and for the ability of human systems to manage any climate-related changes. The design and potential of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways will be discussed.

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Bio: Dr. Kristie L. Ebi is director of the Center for Health and the Global Environment, and Professor in the Departments of Global Health and of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington. She has been conducting research and practice on the health risks of climate variability and change for twenty years, including on extreme events, thermal stress, foodborne safety and security, and vectorborne diseases. She focuses on understanding sources of vulnerability, estimating current and future health risks of climate change, and designing adaptation policies and measures to reduce the risks of climate change in multi-stressor environments. She has supported multiple countries in Central America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and the Pacific in assessing their vulnerability and implementing adaptation measures, in collaboration with WHO, UNDP, USAID, and others. She also co-chairs the International Committee On New Integrated Climate change assessment Scenarios (ICONICS), facilitating development of new climate change scenarios. Dr. Ebi’s scientific training includes an M.S. in toxicology and a Ph.D. and a Masters of Public Health in epidemiology, and two years of postgraduate research at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. She has edited fours books on aspects of climate change and has more than 180 publications.