The Global Warming Hiatus: What's Up With That?

The recent slowdown or “hiatus” in global surface temperature rise since the turn of this century has attracted the attention of climate scientists and policy makers alike, and has generated extensive media coverage. Since the last assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change much has been learnt about the hiatus – to the point that some are now confidently predicting it will end on the tails of the historic El Niño presently underway. In my presentation I will describe some of our recent findings, and the findings of others, which have made clearer the nature of the hiatus, the mechanisms underlying it, and when and how it will end. I’ll also share some lessons learnt in trying to communicate that human-caused warming – which is real and ongoing – shares the stage with internal variability, and because of this we should not be surprised to see hiatuses in the future.

Bio: Dr. John Fyfe is an internationally regarded climate scientist who has been recognized for his contributions in polar science, and to the awarding of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize to the International Panel on Climate Change. After finishing his PhD at McGill University, John worked as a postdoctoral fellow at Princeton University prior to joining the University of British Columbia 1989 where he spent three years as an assistant professor in the department of Oceanography. John has authored or coauthored many peer-reviewed papers in climate, meteorology and oceanography – some in Nature and Science – and is currently a senior research scientist with the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, an Environment Canada Laboratory located on the campus of the University of Victoria.