An Empirical Benchmark for Pacific Ocean Variability and Predictability

CCCMa/PCIC joint seminar

Dr. Matt Newman, Research Scientist with the CIRES Climate Diagnostics Centre and NOAA/ESRL/PSD will be presenting.

Abstract:

Multivariate red noise can provide an excellent approximation of observed Pacific SST anomaly evolution on time scales ranging from weeks to years. A simple empirical model of multivariate red noise is shown in this talk to compare well with current numerical models used both operationally and in climate experiments. This allows for the use of the empirical model to assess and diagnose overall predictability, including possible identification of “forecasts of opportunity”, and to serve as a benchmark for variability on decadal to centennial time scales, including secular trends in the Tropical Pacific.