Climate Simulations at Weather Forecasting Resolution: The Benefit, Challenges, and Prospects of Kilometer-Scale Climate Modeling

The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly noticeable from year to year. Unprecedented floods, heatwaves, rapid snow and glacier loss, and severe storms are just a few consequences that cause a rising toll on the economy, humans, and our ecosystems. However, predictions and projections of these changes with state-of-the-art global climate modeling systems are erroneous and have barely improved over the last decades. Kilometer-scale (km-scale) modeling has emerged as a viable option to significantly improve our ability to simulate and project not only extremes but also the mean state of the climate system. Regional km-scale climate models have been under development for more than a decade and becoming ever more sophisticated. In this talk, I will summarize the main advances and remaining challenges in simulating the terrestrial water cycle and its extremes in various climate zones including mountains, plains, and coasts. Additionally, I will summarize ongoing international activities to advance km-scale climate modeling and highlight options to get involved in these urgently needed initiatives to provide actionable information for climate change adaption and mitigation.

Bio:
Dr. Andreas F. Prein is a Scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, USA, and the deputy director of the Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE) in the Mesoscale & Microscale Meteorology Laboratory (MMM). He has a Ph.D. in Physics and a Master in Environmental System Sciences from the University of Graz in Austria. Dr. Prein is an editor for Scientific Reports and Frontiers Atmosphere and Climate, a panel member of the GEWEX Hydroclimatology Panel (GHP), a steering group member of the WCRP Digital Earths Lighthouse Activity, and helps to coordinate international community activities in the area of kilometer-scale climate modeling. His main research interests are the interaction between mesoscale processes and the climate system, extreme events and their drivers, and the assessment of uncertainties in the climate system.

Watch a recording of this talk.