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Francis Zwiers

Director, President and CEO

Tel.: 250.721.6236

Email Francis Zwiers

Before becoming Director of the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Dr. Zwiers served as a Research Scientist (1984-2006), Chief of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (1997-2006) and Director of the Climate Research Division (2006-2010), all at Environment Canada. He is an Adjunct Professor in the Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics of the University of Victoria and in the Dept. of Statistics and Actuarial Science of Simon Fraser University. His expertise is in the application of statistical methods to the analysis of observed and simulated climate variability and change. Dr. Zwiers is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada and of the American Meteorological Society, a recipient of the Patterson Medal, has served as an IPCC Coordinating Lead Author of the Fourth Assessment Report, and is an elected member of the IPCC Bureau.

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Education: 

  • PhD, Department of Mathematics (Statistics), Dalhousie University

  • MSc, Department of Mathematics (Statistics), Acadia University

  • BMath, Faculty of Mathematics, University of Waterloo

Selected Publications: 

Peer-Reviewed Articles, Assessments, Commentaries (2004-2010)

  • Wang, X.L., H. Wan, F.W. Zwiers, V.R. Swail, G.P. Compo, R.J. Allan, R.S. Vose, S. Jourdain, X. Yin, 2010: Trends and low-frequency variability of storminess over western Europe, 1878-2007, Climate Dynamics, submitted.1 October 2010

  • Stott, P.A., G.S. Jones, N. Christidis, F.W. Zwiers, G.C. Hegerl, H. Shiogama, 2010: Single-step attribution of increasing probabilities of very warm regional temperatures to human influence. Atmospheric Science Letters, submitted.

  • Min, S.-K., Zhang, X., F.W. Zwiers, G.C. Hegerl, 2010: Human contribution to more intense precipitation events. Nature, under revision for resubmission.

  • Zwiers, F.W., X. Zhang, J. Feng, 2010: Anthropogenic influence on long return period daily temperature extremes at regional scales. Journal of Climate, accepted.

  • Zhang, X., J. Wang, F.W. Zwiers, P. Ya Groisman, 2010: The influence of large scale climate variability on winter maximum daily precipitation over North America. Journal of Climate, 23, 2902- 2915.

  • Yu, B., and F.W. Zwiers, 2010: Changes in equatorial atmospheric zonal circulations in recent decades. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L05701, doi:10.1029/2009GL042071.

  • Stott, P.A., N.P. Gillett, G.C. Hegerl, D. Karoly, D. Stone, X. Zhang, F.W. Zwiers, 2010: Detection and attribution of climate change: a regional perspective. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews, 1, 192-211, DOI: 10.1002/wcc.34

  • Lee, T.C.K., M. Tsao, F.W. Zwiers, 2010: State-space model for proxy-based millennial reconstruction. Canadian Journal of Statistics, 38, 488-505.

  • Christidis, N., P.A. Stott, H. Shiogama, T. Nozawa, F.W. Zwiers, 2010: Probabilistic estimates of recent changes in temperature forced by human activity: A multi-scale attribution analysis. Climate Dynamics, 34, 1139-1156, DOI 10.1007/s00382-009-0615-7.

  • Yu, B., G.J. Boer, F.W. Zwiers, W.J. Merryfield, 2009: Covariability of SST and surface heat fluxes in reanalyses and CMIP3 climate models. Climate Dynamics, in press, DOI 10.1007/s00382-009- 0669-6

  • Wang, X., F.W. Zwiers, V.R. Swail, Y. Feng, 2009: Trends and Variability of Storminess in the Northeast Atlantic Region, 1874-2007. Climate Dynamics, 33, 1179–1195, DOI 10.1007/s00382- 008-0504-5.

  • Klein Tank, A.M.G., F.W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, 2009: Guidelines on Analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation. WMO Climate and Data Monitoring, WCDMP-No.-72, 55pp.

  • Kharin, V.V., Q. Teng, F.W. Zwiers, G.J. Boer, J. Derome, J.S. Fontecilla, 2009: Skill assessment of seasonal hindcasts from the Canadian Historical Forecast Project. Atmosphere-Ocean, 47, 204-223.

  • Doherty, S.J. et al., 2009: Lessons learned from IPCC AR4: Future scientific developments needed to understand, predict and respond to climate change, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 497-513, doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2643.1.

  • Wang, X.L., V.R. Swail, F.W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, Y. Feng, 2009: Detection of external influence on trends of atmospheric storminess and northern ocean wave heights. Climate Dynamics, 32, 189–203, doi 10.1007/s00382-008-0442-2.

  • Min, S.-K., X. Zhang, F.W. Zwiers, P. Friederichs, A. Hense, 2009: Signal detectability in extreme precipitation changes assessed from twentieth century climate simulations. Climate Dynamics, 32, 95–111, doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0376-8.

  • Zhang, X., F.W. Zwiers, G.C. Hegerl, 2008: The influences of data precision on the calculation of temperature percentile indices. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 321-327, doi:10.1002/joc.1738.

  • Jones, P.J., et al., 2008: High-resolution paleoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospects. The Holocene, 19, 3-49, doi: 10.1177/0959683608098952.

  • Min, S.-K., X. Zhang, F.W. Zwiers, T. Agnew, 2008: Human influence on Arctic sea ice detectable from early 1990s onwards. Geophysical Research Letters, L21701, doi:10.1029/2008GL035725.

  • Gutowski, W.J., G.C. Hegerl, G.J. Holland, T.R. Knutson, L.O. Mearns, R.J. Stouffer, P.J. Webster, M.F. Wehner, F.W. Zwiers, 2008: Causes of Observed Changes in Extremes and Projections of Future Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. T.R. Karl, G.A. Meehl, C.D. Miller, S.J. Hassol, A.M. Waple, and W.L. Murray (eds.). A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, DC.

  • Zwiers, F.W., and G.C. Hegerl, 2008: Climate change: attributing cause and effect, Nature, 453, 296-297.

  • Zhang, X., F.W. Zwiers, T.C. Peterson, 2008: The adaptation imperative: Is climate science ready, WMO Bulletin, 57, 103-108.

  • Min, S.-K., X. Zhang, F.W. Zwiers, 2008: Human induced Arctic moistening. Science, 320, 518-520, DOI: 10.1126/science.1153468

  • Lee, T.C.K., F.W. Zwiers, M. Tsao, 2008: Evaluation of proxy-based millennial reconstruction methods. Climate Dynamics, 31, 263-281, doi 10.1007/s00382-007-0351-9 1 October 2010

  • Forster, P., G.C. Hegerl, R. Knutti, V. Ramaswamy, S. Solomon, T.F. Stocker, P. Stott, F. Zwiers, 2007: Assessing uncertainty in climate simulations. Nature Reports Climate Change, 4, 63-64.

  • Hegerl, G.C., F.W. Zwiers, P. Braconnot, N. Gillett, J. Marengo, N. Nicholls, J. Penner, P. Stott, Y. Lou, 2007: Understanding and attribution climate change. In: Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group 1 contribution to the 4th Assessment Report, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

  • Zhang, X., F.W. Zwiers, G.C. Hegerl, F.H. Lambert, N.P Gillett, S. Solomon, 2007: Detection of human influence on 20th century precipitation trends. Nature, 448, 461-465, doi:10.1038/nature06025

  • Wu, A., W.W. Hsieh, G.J. Boer, and F.W. Zwiers, 2007: Changes in the Arctic Oscillation under increased atmospheric greenhouse gases. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L12701, doi:10.1029/2007GL029344.

  • Yu, B. and F.W. Zwiers, 2007: The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1000-yr climate modeling study. Climate Dynamics, 29, 837-851, dos:10.1007/s00382-007-0267-4.. Yu, B., A. Shabbar, F.W. Zwiers, 2007: The enhanced PNA-like climate response to Pacific interannual and decadal variability. Journal of Climate, 20, 5285-5300, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1480.1.

  • Kharin, V.V., F.W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and G.C. Hegerl, 2007: Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. Journal of Climate, 20, 1419-1444.

  • Dang, H., N.P. Gillett, A.J. Weaver and F.W. Zwiers, 2007: Climate change detection over different land surface vegetation classes. International Journal of Climate, 27, 211-220.

  • Lee, T.C.K., F.W. Zwiers, X. Zhang and M. Tsao, 2006: Evidence of decadal climate prediction skill resulting from changes in anthropogenic forcing. Journal of Climate, 19, 5305-5318.

  • Zhang, X., F.W. Zwiers and P.A. Stott, 2006: Multi-model multi-signal climate change detection at regional scale. Journal of Climate, 19, 4294–4307.

  • Hegerl, G.C., T.R. Karl, M. Allen, N.L. Bindoff, N. Gillett, D. Karoly, X. Zhang, F.W. Zwiers, 2006: Climate change detection and attribution: beyond mean temperature signals. Journal of Climate, 19, 5058-5077.

  • Wang, X.L., V.R. Swail and F.W. Zwiers, 2006: Climatology and changes of extra-tropical storm tracks and cyclone activity: comparison of ERA-40 with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for 1958-2001, Journal of Climate, 19, 3145–3166.

  • Wu, A., W.W. Hsieh, A. Shabbar, G.J. Boer and F.W. Zwiers, 2006: The nonlinear association between the Arctic Oscillation and North American winter climate. Clim. Dyn., 26, 865–879,DOI: 10.1007/s00382-006-0118-8.

  • Zhang, X., G.C. Hegerl, F.W. Zwiers, J. Kenyon, 2005: Avoiding inhomogeniety in percentile-based indices of temperature extremes. Journal of Climate, 18, 1641-1651. IDAG (International ad hoc Detection and Attribution Group), 2005: Detecting and attributing external influences on the climate system: A review of recent advances. Journal of Climate, 18, 1291-1314.

  • Kharin, V.V., and F.W. Zwiers, 2005: Estimating extremes in transient climate change simulations. Journal of Climate, 18, 1156-1173.

  • Kharin, V.V., F.W. Zwiers, and X. Zhang, 2005 Intercomparison of near surface temperature and precipitation extremes in AMIP-2 simulations, reanalyses and observations. Journal of Climate, 18, 5201-5223.

  • Lee, T.C.K., F.W. Zwiers, G.C. Hegerl, X. Zhang, and M. Tsao, 2005: A Bayesian climate change detection and attribution assessment. Journal of Climate, 18, 2429-2440.

  • Gillett, N.P., A.J. Weaver, F.W. Zwiers, M.D. Flannigan, 2004: Detecting the effect of human induced climate change on Canadian forest fires. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L18211, doi:10.1029/2004GL020876.

  • Gillett, N.P., A.J. Weaver, F.W. Zwiers, M.F. Wehner, 2004: Detection of volcanic influence on global precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L12217, doi:10.1029/2004GL020044.

  • Zwiers, F.W., and H. von Storch, 2004: On the role of statistics in climate research. International Journal of Climate, 24, 665-680.

  • Zhang, X., and F.W. Zwiers, 2004: Comments on "Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test". Wat. Res. Res., 40, W03805, doi:10.1029/2003WR002073.

  • Hegerl, G.C., F.W. Zwiers, P.A. Stott and V.V. Kharin, 2004: Detectability of anthropogenic changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. Journal of Climate, 17, 3683-3700.

  • Wang, X.L., F.W. Zwiers, and V. Swail, 2004: North Atlantic ocean wave climate scenarios for the 21st century. Journal of Climate, 17, 2368-2383.

  • Zhang, X., F.W. Zwiers, and G. Li, 2004: Monte Carlo experiments on the detection of trends in extreme values. Journal of Climate, 17, 1945-1952.