Since its launch in 2005, PCIC has developed a focus on water resources and forestry and other potential sectors facing impacts of climate change. These include transportation, infrastructure, risk management, biodiversity, agriculture, and health.
Online web tools
PCIC's online access to climate scenarios, data, maps, and tools is focused on regional users. There are several new features in development. In addition to online tools, written materials accompanied by interpretation are provided.
Applications of Hydrological Impacts Modeling
The report, "Climate Overview 2007" has documented streamflow changes across BC, including in some cases a decline in mean annual streamflow in those watersheds that have lost their glacier influence. Seasonal variability of streamflow in response to climate variability (ENSO and PDO signals) was also observed. The timing of historical streamflow response over the past 30 to 50 years in BC has also changed. All these factors work to stress the water/power resources of BC.
Collaboration on several projects has been initiated with Ouranos, Environment Canada, BC Hydro, the BC Ministry of Environment, and the Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington in Seattle.
Diagnostic Hydrologic Modelling
The implications of these changes will be examined in an appropriate hydrologic model that includes the competing influences on the surface water budget and the resultant stream flow.
Climate Model Diagnostics Project
High resolution estimatesof future climate conditions require the use of a dynamic model. This is especially true in Pacific North America and British Columbia where topography and contrasts of marine and continental climates create high spatial diversity.
The long-term objective of the project is to exploit the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) technology and diagnostic tools to validate the current water balance in watersheds and regions of British Columbia. The CRCM will be used to simulate future climate conditions. Finally, some estimates of daily streamflow (surrogates) will be calculated to demonstrate the range of conditions expected in the future.The CRCM was developed by members of the RCM network, Consortium Ouranos and the CCCma, as described recently by Laprise (2006). In addition to improved resolution, regional models have improved dynamic features when compared to Global Climate Models (GCMs). These physical mechanisms are essential for estimating the hydrologic components in a regional domain of thermal and topographic contrasts.
Assessment of Seasonal Forecast Skill over BC
An initial analysis of seasonal forecast skill showed that Western Canada has elevated skill where up to 40% of the interannual seasonal variability of temperature is predictable, on average, for certain seasons. The purpose of this project is to examine in more detail the expected skill of monthly-to-seasonal predictions in the Pacific Northwest, more specifically in British Columbia.
Particular emphasis will be placed on the analysis of skill in variables relevant to the hydrological cycle. While forecast skill for precipitation is modest at best, a variety of techniques to spatially aggregate precipitation forecasts to improve skill will be explored as will other statistical techniques for skill improvement. Surface air temperature, for which forecast skill is higher, will also be examined with a view to its influence on snow accumulation in winter, snow melt in spring, the timing of melt, evaporation intensity, etc. Heating degree days (HDDs) and cooling degree days (CDDs) are quantitative indices related to energy demand.
Forestry-related projects
- Economic impacts of influence of climate change on Spruce Bark Beetle and Spruce Budworm
- Creation and distribution of high resolution datasets for climate impacts
