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Gerd Bürger

Climate Scientist

Tel.: 250.472.4683

Email Gerd Bürger

After a previous life as a mathematical logician Gerd started working in the statistical analysis of the climate system. This sent him to fields such as pattern analysis, climate reconstruction, weather and climate forecasting, and downscaling. His main research interest is tackling the uncertainty that is inherent in any projection of future climate, especially with regard to impacts on the most relevant smaller scales.

Gerd developed the Expanded Downscaling (EDS) method, which is inspired by the need to reconcile the different scales of climate modelling and its impact. EDS is particularly well suited to the simulation of extreme events, such as floods and droughts, and has been widely applied in climate impact studies. Gerd's role at PCIC is to supervise the use of various downscaling techniques in the Pacific and Yukon region.

Education: 

  • PhD Mathematical Logic, University of Freiburg

  • Diploma in Mathematics, University of Freiburg

Selected Publications: 
  • Bürger G., 1989. The ℒ<ω-theory of Archimedian Real Closed Fields. Archive for Mathematical Logic, 28, 155-66.
  • Bürger G., 1990. Finding Model Companions via the Skeleton. Algebra Universalis, 27, 230-42.
  • Bürger G., 1993. Complex Principal Oscillation Pattern Analysis. Journal of Climate, 6, 1972-86.
  • Bürger, G. and M. A. Cane, 1994. Interactive Kalman Filtering. Journal of Geophysical Research, 99, 8015-31.
  • Bürger G., S. E. Zebiak and M. A. Cane, 1994. Quasi-Fixed Points and Periodic Orbits in the Zebiak-Cane ENSO Model with Applications in Kalman Filtering. Part I: Monthly Quasi-Fixed Points. Monthly Weather Review, 123(9), 2802-13.
  • Bürger G., S. E. Zebiak and M. A. Cane, 1994. Quasi-Fixed Points and Periodic Orbits in the Zebiak-Cane ENSO Model with Applications in Kalman Filtering. Part II: Periodic Orbits. Monthly Weather Review, 123(9), 2814-24.
  • von Storch, H., G. Bürger, R. Schnur and J.-S. von Storch, 1994. Principal Oscillation Patterns (Review Paper), Journal of Climate, 8(3), 377-400.
  • Bürger G., 1996. Expanded downscaling for generating local weather scenarios. Climate Research 7, 111-28.
  • Bürger G., 1997. On the disaggregation of climatological means and anomalies. Climate Research, 8, 183-94.
  • Grote, R., G. Bürger and F. Suckow, 1998. Simulated impacts of mean vs. Intra-annual climate changes on forests. In: The Impacts of Climate Variability on Forests.
  • Dehn, M., G. Bürger, J. Buma, and P. Gasparetto, 1998. Impact of climate change on slope stability using expanded downscaling. Engineering Geology, 55, 193-204.
  • Müller-Wohlfeil, D. I., G. Bürger, W. Lahmer, 1998. Response of a River Catchment to Climatic Change: Application of Expanded downscaling to Northern Germany. Climatic Change, 47, 61-89.
  • Bürger, G., 2002. Selected precipitation scenarios across Europe. Journal of Hydrology, 262, 99-110.
  • Bronstert, A., D. Niehoff, and G. Bürger, 2002. Effects of climate and land-use change on storm runoff generation: present knowledge and modelling capabilities. Hydrological Processes, 16, 509-29.
  • Menzel, L. and G. Bürger, 2002. Climate change scenarios and runoff response in the Mulde catchment (Southern Elbe, Germany). Journal of Hydrology, 267, 53-64.
  • Bürger, G., and Y. Chen, 2002. Regression-based downscaling of spatio-temporal variability for hydrologic applications. J. Hydrol., 311, 299-317.
  • Bürger, G. and U. Cubasch, 2005. Are multiproxy climate reconstructions robust? Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, L23711, doi:10.1029/2005GL024155, 2005
  • Bürger, G., I. Fast, U. Cubasch, 2006. Climate reconstruction by regression - 32 variations on a theme. Tellus A 58(2): 227
  • Bürger, G., 2007. On the verification of climate reconstructions. Clim. Past, 3, 397-409.
  • Bürger, G., 2007. Comment on "The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years". Science 316, 1844a. [DOI: 10.1126/science.1140982]. With Supporting Online Material.
  • Bürger, G., D. Reusser, and D. Kneis, 2009. Early flood warnings from empirical (expanded) downscaling of the full ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, Water Resour. Res., 45, W10443, doi:10.1029/2009WR007779.
  • Bürger, G., 2009. Dynamically vs. empirically downscaled medium-range precipitation forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1649-1658.